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Special research on the electrical equipment industry: on the calculation of the incremental space of lithium iron phosphate in passenger cars

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share names related to the rise and fall of 10.02% 10.00% 7.12% 5.50% capital

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name related net inflow (10000) 4146.411654.65737.0213, which mentioned 30.91 why do some passenger cars switch to lithium iron phosphate

with the withdrawal of subsidies, we believe that there will be polarization in downstream models, that is, "high-end models are more high-end, low-end models are more low-end", so as to seek the cost performance of selling cars; The corresponding changes to the midstream battery are "upgrading high-end models to ncm622 batteries" and "low-end models may return to LFP batteries". Due to the high price sensitivity of A00 EV passenger cars and PHEV passenger cars, it is possible to increase the use of LFP batteries and reduce NCM batteries to reduce costs

how big is the income increment space of lithium iron phosphate

let's make a limit assumption. Assuming that all A00 and PHEV passenger cars will switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2019, and the LFP unit price is 0.96 yuan/wh (tax included), the corresponding LFP income increment space is 8.427 billion yuan

how big is the incremental profit space of lithium iron phosphate

we make three assumptions: pessimistic, neutral and optimistic. The net interest rate of the industry corresponds to 8%, 10% and 12%, so the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic LFP profit increment space on May 5, 2017 are 674million yuan, 843million yuan and 1.011 billion yuan respectively

how to view the valuation of lithium iron phosphate battery enterprises

the market criticized that "NCM batteries represent the direction of the industry, and LFP is backward production capacity, which cannot be overestimated". However, we believe that if the subsidies decline significantly, then the conversion of A00 and PHEV to LFP batteries is the pursuit of economy, and if the sales of these models continue to maintain high growth, it reflects the market-oriented behavior, which can correspondingly improve the valuation of LFP battery enterprises

investment suggestions

it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of LFP industry in this round of polarization of downstream models. At present, the industry has a good pattern. In 2018, the top four companies in the industry in terms of business scale were Ningde times, accounting for 48.2%; BYD, accounting for 20.7%; GuoXuan high tech, accounting for 10.7%; Yiwei lithium energy, accounting for 5.2%; Cr4 is 84.8%, and the recommended targets are [Ningde times], [Yiwei lithium energy] and [GuoXuan high tech]

risk tips

the expected risk is abandoned before the market promotion of new energy vehicles; The risk of sluggish actual growth of photovoltaic overseas market demand; The risk of ineffective implementation of wind power policies and systems; The manufacturing industry has further downside risks than expected; The risk that the progress of electrical engineering construction is less than expected