The bottom of the hottest paper industry gradually

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The bottom of the paper industry is gradually emerging.

the paper sector has continued to decline since may2011. After the eaves height of 5.1m was completed in just 10 days, most companies have fallen below the net assets, and the bottom of long-term valuation is gradually emerging. After the industry's profit bottomed out in the fourth quarter, with the possible replenishment of inventory by middlemen and the use of low-cost raw materials after the Spring Festival in 2012, the profit is expected to rebound, and the effective implementation of the 12th Five Year Plan will benefit leading enterprises for a long time

on january9,2012, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Forestry Administration officially released the 12th Five Year Plan for the development of vanadium containing steel in the paper industry, reviewed the development achievements and problems of the paper industry during the 11th Five Year Plan period, and formulated the development goals, main tasks and policy measures of the paper industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period, including seven major tasks, three major projects and ten policy measures, Compared with the planning indicators in 2007, the end face of the working piston is the working face bearing pressure oil and refined

the plan clearly points out the general direction of controlling the total amount, promoting concentration, optimizing raw materials, energy conservation and emission reduction.

controlling the total amount is the first step to strictly control the total scale of papermaking, and the growth rate of production and sales in the 12th Five Year Plan has dropped. For the first time in the plan, it is clearly put forward to strictly control the total level of the paper industry, appropriately reduce the development speed, strictly control the repeated construction of paper types with excess capacity, and guide the orderly competition in the market. This is obviously different from the previous moderate control. It is also clearly put forward the constraints for the new construction and expansion of some paper types (paper and coated paper). It is planned that by 2015, the national paper and paperboard consumption will be 114.7 million tons, an average annual increase of 4.6% over 2010; The total capacity of paper and paperboard is about 130million tons, and the total output reaches 116million tons, accounting for 42.5% of the whole year of last year, with an annual growth rate of 4.6% (vs. during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, the output cagr10.6% and the consumption cagr9.1%), and the growth rate has dropped significantly. We believe that after a long period of barbaric growth, a series of problems caused by the disorderly and rapid expansion of the papermaking industry have attracted the attention of relevant departments, and a plan to control the total scale of papermaking has been put forward, which will help to solve the problems of blind expansion and vicious competition that have plagued the industry for a long time. We will promote the elimination of backward production capacity in a centralized manner, propose equal replacement (eliminating backward production capacity to obtain increment), promote the continuous improvement of industrial concentration, and improve the competitiveness of backbone enterprises. Under the hard targets of reducing resource consumption and controlling pollution emissions, it is proposed to eliminate more than 10million tons of backward papermaking capacity throughout the country during the 12th Five Year Plan period (6.5 million tons will be eliminated during the 11th Five Year Plan period in 2007, and 10.3 million tons are expected to be actually completed. At present, the proportion of China's backward capacity is about 35%, exceeding 30million tons). We will control the total amount of water used in the paper industry and the total amount of major pollutants discharged, strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure in the region, and replace new increment by eliminating backward production capacity. Encourage the restructuring and development of leading enterprises, improve the initial scale of new and expanded production lines, and eliminate production lines. It is expected that in 2015, there will be more than 20 pulp and paper enterprises with a scale of more than one million tons, and a number of enterprises will rank among the top 100 in the global paper industry in terms of sales (in 2010, nine dragons, Chenming, Liwen, sun, Huatai and Bohui have ranked among the top 100 in PPI). Compared with the 40% concentration of C5 in Europe and the United States, the current c5=20% in China is far from the same. A series of measures to eliminate the backward and encourage the leaders are conducive to the healthy development of the industry, while the regional equivalent replacement can achieve these two goals at the same time. Optimize raw materials, improve the structure of raw materials, increase the proportion of waste wood pulp, and increase domestic supply. It is estimated that the proportion of wood pulp, non wood pulp and waste pulp will be adjusted from 22.0%, 15.3% and 62.7% in 2010 to 24.3%, 11.7% and 64.0% in 2015, increasing the proportion of wood fiber. The proportion of domestic waste pulp increased from 38.0% to 41.0%, and the proportion of domestic wood pulp increased from 8.4% to 10.3%, increasing the domestic fiber supply. Specific measures are as follows: on the premise of strict protection of natural forest resources, formulate support policies and implementation rules to effectively promote the construction of paper-making raw material forest bases, promote the integration of forest and paper, give overall consideration to the raw material forest bases in the national timber strategic reserve base, advocate the development of company + base + cooperative organizations, and appropriately develop the business models of company + base + farmers to improve the supply capacity, Encourage domestic enterprises to develop forest resources and carry out forest paper projects abroad, and gradually realize that the supply of paper-making raw materials is mainly based on raw material forest bases. Formulate and improve relevant laws, regulations, standards and management measures, and improve the domestic recycling system. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the domestic waste pulp increased by 14million tons, the recovery rate increased from 43.8% to 46.7%, and the utilization rate of waste paper in the paper industry increased from 71.5% to 72.1%. On the one hand, it is intended to reduce the proportion of non wood pulp and solve the pollution problem; On the other hand, it can alleviate the contradiction of excessive dependence on imports of fiber raw materials. Consumption reduction and emission reduction will further limit industrial energy consumption indicators and reduce pollution emissions. By the end of 2015, the average water intake per ton of pulp and paper will be reduced from 85 cubic meters in 2010 to 70 cubic meters (the goal of the paper industry development plan in 2007 is to reduce 103 cubic meters to 80 cubic meters in 2005), a decrease of 18%; The average comprehensive energy consumption per ton of slurry (standard coal) decreased from 0.45 tons in 2010 to 0.37 tons (not required by the planning in 2007), a decrease of 18%; The average comprehensive energy consumption (standard coal) per ton of paper decreased from 0.68 tons in 2010 to 0.53 tons (vs the planned reduction in 2007 from 1.38 tons in 2005 to 1.10 tons), a decrease of 22%. The total discharge of COD is lower than that of 2010, and the total discharge of ammonia nitrogen is 10% lower than that of 2010

reduce the pressure on resources, energy and environment caused by industry development. The short-term profit pressure is still on. The bottom of the long-term valuation has been under the pressure of both supply and demand. The industry profit fell month by month in 2011, and the short-term pressure is still on. The uncertain macro-economy has led to sluggish industrial demand, forcing downstream and middlemen to purchase cautiously to lower inventory (at present, the inventory of middlemen and downstream is lower than the average). In addition, the rapid growth of industrial fixed asset investment (%) in has led to the centralized release of annual production capacity, which has greatly impacted the supply-demand relationship in the finished paper market. Since the middle of 2011, the prices of major paper (especially cultural paper with more production capacity) have continued to decline, and the operating rate has decreased, The profit of paper enterprises fell month by month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the industry has entered the off-season, and it is still difficult to improve its profits

the plan is conducive to the development of leading enterprises, and the bottom of long-term valuation is gradually emerging. Since the continuous decline of the paper sector in may2011, most companies have fallen below the net assets (the average value is 0.8 times Pb), and the bottom of long-term valuation is gradually emerging. After the industry's profit bottomed out in the fourth quarter (it is expected that the operating profit in a single quarter will suffer a loss), after the Spring Festival in 2012, with the possible replenishment of inventory by intermediaries and the use of low-cost raw materials, the profit is expected to rebound (the extent depends on the macro improvement and capacity control). The effective implementation of the 12th Five Year Plan will benefit leading enterprises for a long time. Attention: Chenming paper, Taiyang paper, Yueyang forest paper and Huatai Co., Ltd

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